An Essential Site For Following This Year's US Elections:

[remicks]

Originally Posted by paul

remicks,
what is your take on this whole thing with hillary and barack?

Paul . I'm not ignoring you ....just don't have the time to give it a good response right now .

Part of me at this point feels like "who cares?".
This country is in BIG trouble and its getting worse fast. So let either run but then lose to McCain so that the party that has brought on this catastrophic mess are held responsible for cleaning it up.

Trouble with that is .... with their world views .... it'll only get worse !!!


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[paul]

^^^remicks, I know you would never ignore me.
I hear about the state of the nation. The bush crime family has really shit on the country.

[remicks]

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The Votemaster:

While everyone is focused on the White House, under the radar something is stirring in the Senate.
The Democrats actually have a shot at getting 60 seats there.

A year ago nobody would have thought that within the realm of possibility. A link to the Senate map is given to the right of the map above. It will be updated daily as new polls come in. It currently shows the Democrats projected to win 58 seats. Now Kentucky is surely an outlier. Minority leader Mitch McConnell is in for a serious fight, but ultimately he will prevail. Call it 57-43. But this map assumes the Republicans will hold their seats in Maine (Susan Collins), Minnesota (Norm Coleman), and Oregon (Gordon Smith). All three of those will be huge battlegrounds. If the Democrats manage to win all three, they might get 60 seats. It seems unlikely, but not impossible. The most likely outcome now seems to be something like 55-58 Senate seats. While a 43-seat Republican minority can fillibuster all it likes, getting 43 dispirited and powerless Republicans to stick together will test all of McConnell's political skills. If the Senate ends up, say, 57-43, and Obama is President, he will try to pick off individual senators on specific bills. For example, on children's health care, the two ladies from Maine, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, can probably be convinced to at least vote for cloture. Furthermore, Arlen Spector (R-PA), who is up for reelection in 2010 and is moderate on many issues will offered numerous goodies for his state in return for his support. Since these votes are not needed to pass bills, just to invoke cloture, a Republican who votes for cloture but votes against the bill can say "I think the Senate should vote on major issues, not get stuck in procedural issues, but I voted against the bill."

Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily

THE SENATE RACES:




Strong Dem (52)
Weak Dem (3)
Barely Dem (3)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (4)
Weak GOP (1)
Strong GOP (37)
No Senate race






Interesting year for sure !!!


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[remicks]

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Results if , according to the polls , the election were held today ... June 21 :

Obama: 317
McCain : 194
Tied : 27 --- FLORIDA !




Strong Dem (193)
Weak Dem (42)
Barely Dem (82)
Exactly tied (27)
Barely GOP (38)
Weak GOP (51)
Strong GOP (105)

270 Electoral votes needed to win


Presidential polls today: CA IA NH NV
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IA MO NM OH VA
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)

Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily





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[remicks]

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How about an updated map to celebrate this country's birthday ....
both McCain and Obama have since gained and/or lost certain states' electoral votes :


(where?? ........ that's the fun of following these daily !!)

July 4 , 2008
Obama : 320
McCain : 218







Strong Dem (194)
Weak Dem (45)
Barely Dem (81)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (23)
Weak GOP (115)
Strong GOP (80)

The Votemaster:

The National Journal reports on a Time poll in which 60% of the respondents said that liked Barack Obama more than they like John McCain and only 23% said they liked McCain more. Historically, people tend to vote for the candidate they like best, rather than the one who knows more about government or even the one who favors their interests. Almost nobody thought George Bush knew more about governing than Al Gore in 2000, yet Gore did not get a landslide because many people thought Bush was a nice friendly guy, someone you could have a beer with, rather than a lecture on global warming. Being liked is the key to winning elections in America (unlike many other countries in which the candidates' proposed policies are what matters). On this score, Obama is currently ahead. Since it will be difficult for McCain to raise his likeability--he is what he is-- his campaign will probably focus on reducing Obama's.

Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily


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But notice even TEXAS isn't as glaringly RED right now .......

[Videoskooter]

Ehmmmmm....

[remicks]

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today's map is the closest the race has been so far ....... (FLORIDA!!!! and OHIO !!! again )


Obama 289
McCain 236
Ties 13

270 Electoral votes needed to win


new polls today for : AL AZ CT FL MA




Strong Dem (185)
Weak Dem (58)
Barely Dem (46)
Exactly tied (13)
Barely GOP (44)
Weak GOP (95)
Strong GOP (97)


Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily



Florida Presidential Polls 2008




Ohio Presidential Polls 2008




Looks like this race will be as nerve wracking as the last one !!!!




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[remicks]

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Like Archie Bell .... it's tightening up !!


Obama 284
McCain 241
Ties 13
270 Electoral votes needed to win

Presidential polls today August 14, 2008 : KS NJ NV PA VA WA




Strong Dem (165)
Weak Dem (95)
Barely Dem (24)
Exactly tied (13)
Barely GOP (76)
Weak GOP (68)
Strong GOP (97)

The Votemaster:

The map today is possibly close to a best-case scenario for John McCain.

Here he is shown to be winning Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Nevada with Virginia tied. Suppose McCain also wins Virginia, meaning he wins the five most swinging states. Obama still gets 284 electoral votes and wins the election. Indiana is now shown with an Obama edge, but that will probably turn red eventually, leaving Obama with 273 electoral votes--still enough. Iowa and New Mexico look good for Obama. To win, McCain is either going to have to win one of the Kerry states (hard) or hang onto Colorado, which Obama has been leading all year.

Thus Colorado could become the real battleground in 2008, like Ohio in 2004 and Florida in 2000.

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

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[remicks]

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It just got even closer :

COLORADO !!!!!!

someone please remove Archie Bell from the building ....

Obama 275
McCain 250
Ties -- 13
270 Electoral votes needed to win

Presidential polls today AUGUST 15, 2008 : CO MN TX






Strong Dem (165)
Weak Dem (85)
Barely Dem (25)
Exactly tied (13)
Barely GOP (85)
Weak GOP (34)

Strong GOP (131)



This is Colorado's polling progression:

Colorado Presidential Polls 2008






And Texas is showing its' true colors again !! Damn that's a lot of red !!



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[remicks]

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On today's map, Obama no longer has enough electoral votes to be president.

In today's configuration Virginia looks to be very important to BOTH (although the state's 13 votes would not seal it for McCain ):

Should Virginia come up "McCain" soon,
with no other map changes ...

... tie score !! .....269- 269 !!!!

neither wins .... dual presidency !! ...

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Obama 269
McCain 256
Ties 13

270 Electoral votes needed to win





Strong Dem (134)
Weak Dem (126)
Barely Dem (9)
Exactly tied (13)
Barely GOP (80)
Weak GOP (45)
Strong GOP (131)

Virginia Presidential Polls 2008












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[remicks]

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This is how the map looks with the Democratic Convention bounce.
(It does not yet reflect any Sarah Palin effect).



The best Obama has looked in some time ....



Obama 301
McCain 224
Ties 13
270 Electoral votes needed to win





Strong Dem (151)
Weak Dem (109)
Barely Dem (41)
Exactly tied (13)
Barely GOP (59)
Weak GOP (75)
Strong GOP (90


Sept. 06 2008



Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily


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[remicks]

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Today for the first time John McCain takes the electoral lead and does so with enough votes to be the next president.


Palin/McCain 270
Obama/Biden 268
270 Electoral votes needed to win


Strong Dem (140)
Weak Dem (70)
Barely Dem (58)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (57)
Weak GOP (87)
Strong GOP (126)



September 12, 2008

The Votemaster:

For the first time this year John McCain has taken the lead in the electoral college, albeit by 2 EVs. Today's configuration shows McCain ahead in all the swing states except Colorado. This means he can't afford to lose any of Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, all of which could go either way. Today might later be remembered as the beginning of the end for Obama, or just a blip. Obama now has 268 EVs. In 2004, John Kerry had 273 on this date. However, there is still a long way to go. The debates will be even more important than usual this year.

I have a very bad feeling about this ...............



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[remicks]

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Now according to today's map no one will be president.

Ah , if only a convincing third party were waiting in the wings .....

Sarah/McCain 257
Obama/Biden 247
Ties 34

270 Electoral votes needed to win






Strong Dem (133) Weak Dem (67) Barely Dem (47) Exactly tied (34) Barely GOP (41) Weak GOP (87) Strong GOP (129)
September 16, 2008

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily



With our crumbling financial crises heading for ......???.....!!!!!


Maybe its time Obama started asking not only "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" ...

.... but ask also "Is the country better off now than it was four years ago ????" !!!!!!!!!!!

The Votemaster:

Wall Street in Turmoil....


The financial industry is reeling. The venerable Lehman Brothers investment bank has filed for bankruptcy. Insurance giant A.I.G. is close to bankruptcy, and Merrill Lynch only avoided bankruptcy by selling itself to Bank of America for $50 billion in BoA stock. Other financial firms are in the bullseye. This week has been the worst week for Wall St. since 1929.

For people who don't understand what is going on, here is the story in a nutshell. Decades ago, when you wanted to buy a house you went to local bank and applied for a mortgage. If the mortgage was less than three times your annual income and you had a good credit history, the bank would loan you the money and you would pay them interest and some principal every month for 30 years. Then Wall St. got a bright idea: buy up all the mortgages from the banks, collect a few thousand into a pool called a CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligation) and sell shares in it. The owner of each share would get a pro-rata share of the incoming monthly mortgage payments, analogous to what a bond owner gets.

What happened? It sounded like a great idea and soon all mortgages were sold and repackaged into shares. It didn't take long before the banks realized that they could issue mortgages of five, six, even eight times the buyer's annual income or sell them to people with terrible credit histories. After all, the shaky mortgages would soon be somebody else's headache. That's what happened. Lehman, Merrill, and others bought billions of dollars of mortgages that the homeowners had no hope of ever repaying on schedule and nobody wanted to buy shares in these worthless CDOs, so the brokers got stuck holding the bag with billions in worthless loans.

What are the political consequences of this meltdown? It is a bit early, but here's the expected pattern. Republicans will say that bankruptcies, however unfortunate, are an absolutely essential part of free markets. When managers make stupid decisions, the market punishes them by driving them into bankruptcy. This warns other managers not to be so greedy. Democrats will say that millions of innocent homeowners and small investors are going to lose their homes and life savings due to misbehavior on the part of rapacious and unscrupulous bankers and that it is the job of the government to regulate the entire financial sector to protect ordinary people who don't know the difference between a CD and a CDO.

One thing that is crystal clear already is that reporters are going to be asking the candidates how they plan to deal with this. John McCain might call for more regulation and when other Republicans scream at him use this to prove his "maverick" credentials. Of course he will be accused of locking the barn door after the prize horse (with or without lipstick) has escaped since he has never been much of a fan of government regulation before. For Obama it will be easier to call for more government oversight. Democrats believe government is supposed to protect people.

--- Maybe Americans will now finally wake up and ponder if voting is something to take a little more


photoshopped
......seriously !! ....




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